Heuristische Erlösprognosen für die Bewertung von Geschäftsmodellen im Application Service Providing

Abstract

Several problems complicate the assessment of enterprises that cooperate with other firms in developing and distributing bundled goods. Revenue forecasts are particularly challenging. Cooperating suppliers must estimate and model future prices and sales volumes. They have to agree on a ratio of distribution for jointly generated revenues. Furthermore, they must compare different value chain configurations and assess consequences for the distribution of revenues. We propose a heuristic method that helps to forecast revenues for bundled goods. We demonstrate the heuristic method with the example of Application Service Providing.