Model-based approach to quantify and regionalize peanut production in the major peanut production provinces in the People`s Republic of China

Abstract

China is the largest peanut producer in the world and peanut therefore an essential economic product earning significant income for China's farmers. Major provinces for peanut production are located in the middle and eastern provinces. In these regions, drought stress between germination and pod setting, could be severe and yield decline because of uneven rainfall and climate variability. Four provinces were selected for modeling and simulating large area yield estimation in order to evaluate potential yield with respect to average rainfall in the individual regions. Measured, average yield during the evaluated years ranged from 2918 kg ha-1 to 3969 kg ha-1 with a mean yield of 3420 kg ha-1 and a mean modeled yield of 3422 kg ha-1. The model showed a good fit between observed and simulated data with a RMSE of 252. Model error was 7.4 %.