The quality of weather information for forecasting of intermittent renewable generation

Abstract

The weather forecasts are affecting different aspects of our everyday life. Nowadays, thanks to many tools and methods we are able to predict meteorological phenomena. It is possible, with a level of uncertainty, to take control over the unpredictability of the future weather conditions. Unfortunately, the predictions of the future meteorological variables are far from perfection, and it is confirmed not only by scientific research but also by every-day experience. Hence, the quality of the weather predictions has to be evaluated. Especially, as this information is critical for numerous sectors, amongst which the renewable energy sector may be distinguished. Nowadays, an accurate prediction of the power output of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) is highly dependent on weather and climate conditions. Thus, the energy decision- makers have to depend on the quality of the obtained weather information. However, there are no commonly accepted standards that would allow for the evaluation of the quality of information gained from different sources. The aim of this paper is to provide a critical overview of the currently used assessment methods of the quality of weather forecasts. The main focus is put on the methods and criteria for evaluation of weather information that is used for predicting power output from intermittent RES.