A scenario-based approach to assessing the exposure and flood risk of Ho Chi Minh City’s urban development strategy in times of Climate Change

Abstract

Asian cities located in deltaic settings such as Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), exhibit higher exposure levels to flood risk primary as a result of their location, their low elevation and if located in tropical regions, the significant annual variations of climatic and weather extremes they incur. The present assessment linking urban development and sea level rise (SLR) scenarios provides an initial estimation of the exposure of HCMC to potential flooding from the current high tide level (1.5 m AMSL). The scenarios also investigate how climate change is likely to influence HCMC’s exposure to coastal inundation due to SLR (+0.5 and +1.0 m) up to the year 2100, alongside rapid urbanisation. Focussing on projected land-use changes extracted from the official land-use plan up to the year 2010 and the draft version for the years up to 2025/30, a much more detailed analysis is provided than earlier studies carried out on the global or national level. The analysis focuses on the exposure of built-up land to current and future flooding, rather than estimating the ‘risk’ of flooding to population and long-lived economic assets, such as buildings, utilities and transport infrastructure.