Auswirkungen des Kernenergieausstiegs auf die deutsche Elektrizitätswirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des liberalisierten, europäischen Strommarkts

Abstract

Future electricity generation in Germany is strongly influenced by the German nuclear phase-out plans, current market liberalisation efforts and emission reduction strategies. To evaluate the impact of the planned nuclear phase-out on the German power sector regarding costs, emissions and electricity imports/exports a scenario approach has been chosen. Calculations have been realised using the energy flow model PERSEUS-ICE. The model calculations show an increase in the total system costs of 55.4 billions DM due to the nuclear phase-out plans. Emission reduction costs to achieve the reduction targets fixed in the Kyoto protocol are also increased by additional 9,4 billions DM. Increased international power exchange will result in different power generation structures, will reduce electricity exports and favour the use of coal and lignite in power generation in Germany at the end of the time horizon. In the middle-term gas-fired combined-cycle power plants will play an important role in power generation.