A Qualitative Multi-attribute Model for Economic and Ecological Evaluation of Genetically Modified Crops

Abstract

The use of genetically modified (GM) crops raises several concerns about their ecological and economic consequences. For the purpose of the European projects ECOGEN and SIGMEA, we develop qualitative multi-attribute hierarchical models for the assessment of GM and non-GM cropping systems. In this paper, we describe a model for the assessment of ecological and economic impacts of GM and non-GM maize cropping systems at the farm level for one year of cropping. In this model, cropping systems are described by the features: crop type, regional and farmlevel context, crop protection and crop management strategies, and expected characteristics of the yield. The assessment is based on four groups of ecological and two groups of economic indicators: biodiversity, soil biodiversity, water quality, greenhouse gasses, variable costs and the value of production. The paper presents the hierarchical structure and components of the model, and illustrates its application by assessing five typical cropping systems.