Model-Based-Climate Change Impact Assessment for Agriculture in North-East German Moraine Landscapes – What We Have Learned ?

Abstract

In the paper the methodology and the results of a high spatial resolution case study to predict the possible impacts of regionalized climate change on agricultural productivity and some important environmental parameters are described and discussed. Unlike to other studies not only a single mechanistic crop growth model was used but also a combination of different model types (semi-empiric statistical and mechanistic models). The simulation results show, that the given regionalized climate change scenarios to the North East German lowland will not lead to great problems for agricultural productivity. The ground-water recharge under agricultural land, on the other hand, will decrease dramatically. Despite the progress which could be reached in the last years, there are many uncertainties in regional climate impact assessment on agriculture and environment. The scientific challenges for the next years are presented.