An integrated approach to survivability analysis of large complex critical infrastructures

Abstract

The integrated approach for analysis of Large Complex Critical Infrastructures (LCCIs) to afford survivability aimed at preparing a Roadmap for Research and Development for critical infrastructure protection. Modelling and analysis of these large and complex systems is a challenge because of their nonlinear and time-dependent behaviour. Existing models are inadequate, lacking necessary methodologies and therefore cannot protect infrastructures against a variety of blackouts. This article explores possible complications and relates them to four, prior identified, layers of network operation. Methods are required to help design new networks and support analysis of currently employed systems. Main needs for the design task will be elaborated and necessary development like the establishment of a general approach to the problem of modelling and analysis of LCCI's are covered. In presenting an analytical approach to develop an exhaustive methodology for survivability analysis a step-by-step procedure should lead to a scenario set which is capable to identify a set of high-risk hazardous paths. The analytical approach will be supplemented with a complex system as well as a simulation approach. Integrating these three approaches in a coherent framework should gain deeper insights in necessary and reasonable avenues to break new ground.