Validating Navigation Time Prediction Models for Menu Optimization

Abstract

Authors of menu optimization methods often use navigation time prediction models without validating whether the model is adequate for the site and its users. We review the assumptions underlying navigation time prediction models and present a method to validate these assumptions offline. Experiments on four web sites show how accurate the various model features describe the behavior of the users. These results can be used to select the best model for a new optimization task. In addition, we find that the existing optimization methods all use suboptimal models. This indicates that our results can significantly contribute to more effective menu optimization.